Document Type : Research Paper
1 PhD Student of Sport Management, Urmia University
2 Associate Professor of Sport Management, Urmia University
3 Associate Professor of System Management and productivity, University of Tehran, Faculty of management
4 Associate Professor of Sport Management, University of Tehran, Faculty of Physical Education & Sport
Due to the rapid environmental changes and their resultant uncertainties, greater planning and future studies are required to encounter the potential future changes. This is particularly important when it comes to physical education and sports, especially at an early age, because the changes having occurred in today's life and the mechanization of activities have led to loss of mobility and various diseases. Therefore, this study has aimed at identifying the uncertainties of physical education and student sport in 1404 . This is an applied research in terms of purpose, and a descriptive research in terms of the data collection method. In terms of the research method, this is a qualitative research and a prospective study. The structural analysis method has been used to identify the uncertainties of physical education and student sport, and the calculations of this method have been performed using the MicMac software. Consequently, library studies and in-depth interviews with experts were used to identify 21factors influencing the physical education and student sport. A pair wise comparison questionnaire was then used and completed using some experts' views. Further, the relationships between the factors were described by constructing a matrix and drawing a graph. Finally, the groups of factors were identified and the uncertainties were extracted, which included "statesmen's attitudes toward physical education and sports", "upstream documents", "human resource quality", "the share of sports in the household's cost basket", and "inter-institutional and inter-organizational interactions". Consequently, if we want to have good planning , we need to consider these uncertainties.
- Arcade, J. Godet, M. Meunier, F. Roubelat, F. (1999). Structural Analysis with the Micmac Method & Actors’ Strategy with MACTR Method. Futures Research Methodology. American Council for the United Nations University: The Millennium Project.
- Asadzade, L. (2012). Future Studies in the Development of Human Resources in Education from the Perspective of Principals in Alborz Province. Master's thesis. Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Faculty of Educational Sciences and Psychology. (Persian)
- Askarian, F., Jafari, A. (2008). conomic study of sports expenses of Iranian households in 1998 and 2001. Research in Sport Sciences, (18): 75-86. (Persian)
- Aslani, R. (2015). Scenario Planning of Medical Tourism in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Master's thesis. Allameh Tabataba'i University. Faculty of Management and Accounting. (Persian)
- Badau, K. (2016). Teachers Classroom Management Practices for Increasing Effectiveness in Climate change in Nigeria. Social Sciences Research Journal, 3(1): 43-50.
- Bailey, R. (2006). Physical Education and Sport in Schools: A Review of Benefits and Outcomes. Journal school health. 76(8): 397-401.
- Castillo, J. C., Ruth Clark, B., Butler, C. E., Racette, S. B, (2015). Support for Physical Education as a Core Subject in Urban Elementary Schools. American journal of Preventive Medicine, 49(5): 753-756.
- Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (1979). (Persian)
- Chermak, T. G, (2015). Scenario Planning in Organizations to Create, Implement and Evaluate Scenarios. Khazaee, S., Vakilzadeh, M., Rahneshin, A. Tehran: ELM AFARIN publications. (Persian)
- Ejdys, J. Matuszak-Flejszman, A. Szymanski, M. Ustinovicius, L. Shevchenko, G. Lulewicz-Sas, A. (2016). Crucial factors for Improving the ISO14001 Environmental Management System. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 17 (1): 52-73.
- Godet, M. (1994). From anticipation to action: a handbook of strategic prospective, UNESCO Publishing, United Nations Educational.
- Hardman, K. Marshall, J. (2000). World-Wide Survey of the State and Status of School Physical Education, Summary of Findings. European Physical Education Review, 6(3):203-229.
- Headari, M. H. Pak Seresht, M. J. Safayi Moghadam, M. (2015). Future Education: Goals and Solutions. Journal of Educational Sciences and Psychology, 12(2): 135-162. (Persian)
- Hemmati, A. R. Godarzi, M. A. Hajiani, I. (2015). Futures Studies, Necessities of Education Systems. Journal of Future Studies Management, 26(103): 59-67. (Persian)
- Iran's 20-Year Vision Plan. (2003). (Persian)
- Khazaei, S. Nazemi, A. Heidari, A. H. Alizadeh, A. Kashani, H. (2015). Foundations of Futures Studies and Methodology. Tehran: National Research Institute for Science Policy. (Persian)
- Momenan, A. Delshad, M. Mirmiran. P. Ghanbarian, A. Safarkhani, M. Azizi, F. (2012). physical Inactivity and Related Factors in an Adult Tehranian Population (Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study). Iranian Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism, 13(5). (Persian)
- Naserabadi, Z. (2001). Future Studies. Center for Strategic Studies and Planning, Institute for Defense Studies and Research. (Persian)
- Nazarko, J. Ejdys, J. Halicka, K. Nazarko, L. Kononiuk, A. Olszewska, A. (2017). Structural Analysis as an Instrument for Identification of Critical Drivers of Technology Development. 7th International Conference on Engineering, Project, and Production Management. Procedia Engineering, 182, 474 – 481.
- Overall Policies of Creating Change in the Education System, (2013). (Persian)
- Overall Policies of the Sixth Development Plan, (2015). (Persian)
- Pujadas Botey, A. Bayrampour, H. Carson, V. Vinturache, A. Tough, S. (2016). Adherence to Canadian Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviour GuideLines among Children 2 to 13 Years of Age. Preventive Medicine Reports, 3, 14-20.
- Rabbani, T. (2012). Structural Analysis, a Tool to Identify and Analyze the Variables Affecting the Future of Urban Issues. First National Conference on Future Studies. Tehran. (Persian)
- Razi, J., Emam Jomea, M.R., Ahmadi, G. A. (2017). Presenting a model for effective teacher and considering its proportionality with upper documents implications of Iran education system. Research in curriculum planning, 14(28): 1-14. (Persian)
- Rezaeian, A. (2003). Principles of Organization and Management. SAMT publications. Fifth Edition. (Persian)
- Tayebi Abolhasani, S.A.H., Khodabakhshi, M. (2018). Effective Use of Impressive Revolutions on the Future of HRM with Emphasis on Knowledge-based Economy. Rahyaft, (70): 67-84. (Persian)
- Thibaut, E. Eakins, J. Vos, S. Scheerder, J. (2016). Time and money expenditure in sports participation: The role of income in consuming the most practiced sports activities in Flanders. Sport Management Review. 20(5): 455-467.
- Statistics and ICT Center. (2019). Strategic Statistics System (SRA). Ministry of Education. (Persian)
- Statistical Centre of Iran. (2018). Survey Results of Urban Households Expenses and Income in 1396. (Persian)
- Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution. (2011). Fundamental Reform Document of Education (FRDE) in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Secretariat of the Supreme Council of Education. Mashhad. (Persian)
- Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution. (1390). Theoretical foundations of fundamental change in the formal and public education system of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Secretariat of the Supreme Council of Education. Mashhad.
- The aspen institute. (2014). Reimagining Youth Sports in America.
- The Office of Physical Education and Sport Sciences. (2019). the report of the performance of four decades of praise in the field of physical education and sport activities after the victory of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, Deputy Director of Physical Education and Health, Ministry of Education. (Persian)
- Vahdani, M. (2017). Designing a Model of Strategic Management at the Department of Physical Education and Health of the Education Ministry of Iran, A research thesis submitted for The degree of Ph.D in management and planning in physical education, Faculty of physical education and sport sciences, University of Tehran. (Persian)
- World Health Organization. (2012). Physical Activity