Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Ph.D. Student in Sport Management, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
2
Associate Professor, Sport Management, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
3
Assistant Professor, Governance Faculty, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
10.22089/res.2025.17170.2545
Abstract
Background and Purpose
Educational sport, as a form of sport that involves teaching various sports skills alongside the development of other sports among individuals both quantitatively and qualitatively, plays an effective role in the development of psychomotor skills (Mahya et al., 2021). Educational sport is one of the foundations of sports development and underlies elite and professional sport in many countries. However, studies indicate that educational and student sport in Iraq has been completely neglected in academic and university research (Mohammed Abdulzahra et al., 2024). Furthermore, the necessity of identifying the macro variables influencing educational sport in this country in scientific research and forward-looking approaches, and under conditions of uncertainty due to the lack of attention to this area, is strongly felt. This indicates a significant research gap in this field, which can be addressed by identifying the environmental factors and forces affecting the future of educational sport in Iraq and developing probable scenarios based on these strategic factors to predict the future of educational sport in Iraq. Therefore, in this research, the researcher seeks to present probable scenarios regarding the future of educational sport in Iraq by 2033, in order to answer the question: What is the future of educational sport in Iraq by 2033?
Methods
This study, from the perspective of foundations, is interpretive; from the perspective of level, it is country-wide; from a research approach perspective, it is inductive; from a nature perspective, it is a Mix Method; from a research environment perspective, it is expert-based; from a strategic perspective, it is normative-observatory; and from a time horizon perspective, it is short-term and was conducted in three steps.
Participants
The participants included stakeholders in Iraqi educational sports, such as university professors, teachers, students, and pupils. A purposive sampling method was used to select 20 individuals based on their expertise. In the second and third steps of the study, 14 participants with systematic and strategic insights were selected for further analysis.
Data Collection
Data were collected through structured interviews and questionnaires. The interview questions were designed to align with the research objectives, while the questionnaire was developed based on qualitative information gathered during the interviews. To determine the importance and uncertainty of the identified factors, a structural analysis matrix questionnaire was used. Finally, for scenario development, a balanced cross-impact analysis questionnaire was utilized.
Data Analysis
Thematic analysis was used to identify PESTLE factors, while structural analysis using MicMac software was employed to determine the importance and uncertainty of these factors and to present the scenario, the interaction balance analysis method and the Scenario Wizard software were used. The study also used Lincoln and Guba’s (1985) criteria for evaluating qualitative research, including credibility, transferability, dependability, and confirmability.
Findings
According to experts, it has been determined that 71 influential factors in the structure and environment of sports education in Iraq will shape the future by 2033. These factors are categorized into six major categories: Political Factors, Economic Factors, Social Factors, Technological Factors, Environmental Factors, and Legal Factors. The uncertainty and importance of each of the 71 factors were identified through scoring by research samples and 16 factors with very high importance and uncertainty were identified for further analysis. In the third step of the research, these selected variables were analyzed using the Interaction Effects Analysis method in MicMac environment to determine their impacts that revealed internal policy direction in Iraq, the country's economic growth rate, Iraqi citizens' lifestyle, the technology penetration rate in Iraq, and the environmental discourse status in Iraq were two-way risk and objective variables. In the next stage, which was carried out with the aim of presenting possible scenarios, first, based on the theoretical basis of the stakeholders, the most important factors of the "descriptors" system were identified, based on which the final scenarios would be distinguished. Next, based on the balance of influence analysis questionnaire, the interaction between strategic factors and their situations was examined, and the average of stakeholders' opinions was created in the scenario matrix. The results indicated that three scenarios with high scores and a higher probability of occurrence are conceivable for the future of physical education in Iraq by 2033. Among these, one scenario depicts promising and favorable conditions (Ascension), one scenario represents intermediate conditions (Fluctuation), and one scenario reflects critical and discouraging conditions (Weakening)
Discussion
Based on the findings obtained, and to realize the first scenario, Iraq's domestic policy orientation should move towards facilitating communication with various countries. This is to increase foreign investment and promote greater economic growth in Iraq, thereby strengthening educational sports in Iraq by leveraging the capabilities of these countries. Furthermore, in the event of the second scenario, the inclination of Iraqi citizens towards Islamic-Shia culture, which emphasizes sports, should be utilized to create the conditions for enhancing sports motivation within families and among young people, thus strengthening educational sports in Iraq. Also, the sense of nationalism within Iraq's domestic policy should be used to emphasize the achievements of sports and its impact on national pride and reputation in international forums, paving the way for government support for educational sports. In the event of the third scenario, to mitigate negative effects, the Iraqi Ministries of Sports and Youth, Culture, and Science should create opportunities to increase sports technologies in Iraq. By utilizing these sports technologies, we will witness the growth and development of educational sports in Iraq.
Article Message
This study presents possible scenarios for the future of Iraqi sports education in the horizon of 2033. Identifying these scenarios can outline the possible future of Iraqi sports education for policymakers and stakeholders of sports education in Iraq so that they are prepared to face different conditions and predicted situations. The findings emphasize that the possible scenarios include three scenarios of elevation (promising and desirable conditions), fluctuation (intermediate conditions), and weakening (critical and disappointing conditions).
Ethical Considerations
All research samples participated in the study voluntarily and the informed consent form for participation in the study was completed by the research samples (by parents for students under 18 years of age). Also, necessary explanations were given regarding the purpose of the study, how to use the data, maintaining the confidentiality of the participants' information; not publishing names, characteristics or any identifying data and the participant's right to withdraw at any stage without any consequences for the research samples.
Authors’ Contributions
Conceptualization: The first author of the article, Mr. Manhal Abdalkhudhur Al-Zubaidi, and the corresponding and second author, Ms. Zardoshtian, were the study's idea generators.
Data Collection: Data collection was carried out by first author of the article Mr. Manhal Abdalkhudhur Al-Zubaidi.
Data Analysis: Data analysis was carried out by first author of the article Mr. Manhal Abdalkhudhur Al-Zubaidi.
Manuscript Writing: Manuscript writing was carried out by third author of the article Mr. Abbasi.
Review and Editing: Fourth author of the article Mr. Eydi reviewed and edited the Manuscript.
Responsible for funding: first author of the article Mr. Manhal Abdalkhudhur Al-Zubaidi was responsible for funding. Literature Review The literature review was conducted by fifth author of the article Mr. Rezayan ghayehbashi.
Project Manager: The project manager corresponding and second author of the article, Ms. Shirin Zardashtian.
Conflict of Interest
Conducting this research did not result in any conflict of interest for the authors, and its results have been reported in a completely transparent and unbiased manner.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge and thank all research samples and individuals who helped the authors during the implementation of this study.
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