Foresight in Physical Education in Iranian Schools: A Scenario Planning Approach with Stakeholder Participation

Education is a cornerstone for sustainable development in any society, and physical education (PE) plays a crucial role within the educational system, significantly contributing to the physical, psychological, and social development of students. PE not only serves as a physical activity but also as a tool to enhance life skills, improve public health, and reinforce social and ethical values. Research indicates that physical activities in schools contribute to better academic performance, reduced stress, and enhanced social interactions. Moreover, PE is an essential element of education, helping to address challenges such as the increasing rates of childhood obesity and declining physical activity levels. Despite its undeniable importance, the Iranian school system faces several challenges in PE, including inadequate resources, lack of comprehensive programs, and poor infrastructure. These challenges directly impact the quality of PE education, making it a crucial issue for educational policy and the well-being of future generations.
Materials and Methods
This research employs a scenario planning approach to explore the future of physical education (PE) in Iranian schools, using the Shell Method for strategic foresight. The methodology follows an interpretivist philosophical framework and an inductive approach, aiming to understand stakeholders' perspectives on the current and future state of PE education in Iran. The focus is on identifying key drivers, uncertainties, and potential scenarios that could shape the evolution of PE in the country.
The study utilizes semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, including policymakers, school administrators, PE teachers, and experts, to gather diverse insights.