سناریوهای ورزش تربیتی عراق در افق 2033

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت ورزشی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

2 دانشیار مدیریت ورزشی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

3 استادیار دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

10.22089/res.2025.17170.2545
چکیده
یکی از محورهای بسیار مهم ورزش، ورزش تربیتی است و فرایند توسعه ورزش از ورزش تربیتی آغاز می‌شود؛ بنابراین هدف این پژوهش تدوین سناریوهای ورزش تربیتی کشور عراق در افق 2033 بود. پژوهش حاضر از منظر مبانی، تفسیرگرایی، از لحاظ رهیافت پژوهش، استقرایی و از حیث ماهیت، ترکیبی بود. مشارکت­کنندگان در پژوهش ذی‌نفعان ورزش تربیتی کشور عراق (معلمان، اساتید دانشگاه، دانش‌آموزان و دانشجویان) بودند که به صورت هدفمند و برمبنای اشباع نظری 20 نفر از آنان به‌عنوان نمونه بخش کیفی و 14 نفر به‌عنوان نمونه بخش کمی پژوهش انتخاب شدند. برای گردآوری داده­ها از ابزارهای مصاحبه و پرسشنامه استفاده شد. به‌منظور تجزیه و تحلیل داده­ها از روش‌های تحلیل ‌ساختاری و تحلیل بالانس اثرات متقابل استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که سه سناریو با امتیاز بالا و احتمال وقوع بیشتر در شرایط پیش­ روی ورزش تربیتی کشور عراق در افق 2033 متصور هستند که از میان آن‌ها سناریوی اعتلا، شرایط امیدوارکننده و مطلوب را نشان می­دهد. سناریوی نوسان شرایط بینابینی و سناریوی تضعیف شرایط بحرانی و ناامیدکننده را نشان می­دهد. با توجه به نتایج، سیاست­گذاران و برنامه­ریزان حوزه ورزش تربیتی در عراق باید برنامه‌های ورزش تربیتی را با توجه به نرخ رشد اقتصادی کشور عراق، ‌جهت‌گیری سیاست داخلی در کشور عراق، ضریب نفوذ فناوری در کشور عراق، سبک زندگی شهروندان عراقی و وضعیت گفتمان زیست‌محیطی در کشور عراق طراحی کنند و سناریوهای مختلف را برای طراحی برنامه‌های خود مدنظر قرار دهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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دوره 13، شماره 38
فروردین 1404
صفحه 65-90

  • تاریخ دریافت 05 شهریور 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 25 اردیبهشت 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 19 خرداد 1404