نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری تخصصی مدیریت ورزشی، گروه تربیت بدنی و علوم ورزشی، واحد مبارکه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مبارکه، ایران.

2 استادیار مدیریت ورزشی، گروه تربیت بدنی و علوم ورزشی، واحد مبارکه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مبارکه، ایران.

3 دانشیار مدیریت ورزشی، گروه تربیت بدنی و علوم ورزشی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

تغییرات یا رویدادهایی در آینده وجود دارد که احتمال وقوعِ‌شان نسبتاً کم، اما تأثیر بالقوه آنها بر پیشبرد امور، فوق‌العاده زیاد است. در این پژوهش با استفاده از تکنیکِ دلفی به شناسایی شگفتی‌سازها و پیشران‌های مؤثر بر آینده ورزش تربیتی ایران پرداخته شده است. این پژوهش از نظر شیوه از نوع تحقیقات آمیخته و بر اساس پارادایم نظریه پیچیدگی و دارای رویکرد اکتشافی است. مشارکت‌کنندگان در این پژوهش 14 خبره متخصص در حوزه‌های آینده‌پژوهی و ورزش تعلیم و تربیتی و آشنا به آینده‌پژوهی بودند که ابتدا به صورت هدفمند و سپس با روش گلوله برفی انتخاب گردیدند و در سه دور اجرای تکنیک دلفی دربارۀ 4 شگفتی‌ساز و 17 پیشران شناسایی شده، به اجماع رسیدند. این پیشران‌ها در 5 دستۀ اجتماعی، فناوری، زیست‌محیطی، اقتصادی و سیاسی دسته‌بندی شدند. به نظر می‌رسد برای عدم غافلگیری توسط شگفتی‌سازها و پیشران‌ها، از "زمان واکنش" که فاصله‌ای بین سیگنال‌های ضعیف زمان حال و زمان وقوع شگفتی‌سازهای آینده است، لازم است متولیان ورزش تربیتی، برنامه‌ریزی جامع و عملیاتی جهت رصد آینده و پیشنگری آینده برای توسعه ورزش تربیتی تدوین نمایند. از این رو شناسایی شگفتی‌سازها و پیشران‌های موثر بر آینده ورزش تربیتی ایران تا حدودی می‌توانند آینده‌های گوناگون را با احتمالات مختلف شناسایی نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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