Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
PhD Student in Sport Management, Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad Branch, Najafabad, Iran
2
Assistant Professor in Sport Management, Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad Branch, Najafabad, Iran
3
Assistant Professor in Motor Behavior, Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad Branch, Najafabad, Iran
4
Associate Professor in Sport Management, Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad Branch, Najafabad, Iran
Abstract
Background and Purpose
Education plays a pivotal role in achieving sustainable development, and within this domain, Physical Education (PE) serves as a foundational component that nurtures students’ physical, psychological, and social well-being. PE extends beyond physical activity; it fosters life skills, improves mental health, strengthens interpersonal relationships, and cultivates ethical and civic values. Research consistently shows that regular engagement in school-based physical activities enhances academic performance, reduces stress levels, and promotes social inclusion. Additionally, PE has become a strategic mechanism to combat public health challenges such as the rise in childhood obesity and sedentary lifestyles. Despite its critical importance, the state of physical education in Iranian schools faces systemic deficiencies. These include limited infrastructure, fragmented policies, inadequate teacher training, and insufficient financial support. These barriers contribute to declining participation rates, uneven access to resources, and diminished educational quality, particularly in underserved regions. Therefore, addressing the future of PE in Iran requires a forward-looking approach that anticipates challenges and strategically mobilizes stakeholders to foster a more equitable, innovative, and sustainable PE system.
Methods
This research applies a scenario planning methodology to envision and analyze the future of PE in Iranian schools by the year 1414 (2035). Utilizing the Shell Scenario Planning Model, the study adopts an interpretivist epistemology with an inductive strategy, focusing on the lived experiences, insights, and anticipations of key stakeholders. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 25 participants, including policymakers, school principals, PE teachers, government officials, parents, and students. These interviews were analyzed using thematic content analysis to extract recurring themes, uncertainties, and driving forces.
The Shell Method was selected due to its flexibility and iterative nature, allowing narratives to organically emerge without predefined categorization. This method involved five stages: (1) identifying stakeholders’ current perceptions and future expectations, (2) detecting key driving forces and uncertainties, (3) drafting scenario headlines and narrative elements, (4) assessing the consequences of each scenario, and (5) formulating strategic responses and policy recommendations. The robustness of the scenarios was tested through expert validation, group consensus, and sensitivity analyses. By combining expert insight with analytical techniques such as the PESTEL framework and DEMATEL analysis, this study ensured a comprehensive and multidimensional perspective of the future of PE in Iranian schools.
Results
The study resulted in the development of four plausible future scenarios, each shaped by key drivers such as governance quality, budget allocation, social attitudes, technological innovation, and environmental conditions. These scenarios provide a strategic framework for addressing current challenges while anticipating emerging dynamics in the field of PE.
The four scenarios are as follows:
1. Integrated and Smart Education: Emphasizes the integration of smart infrastructure, wearable technology, and digital platforms into PE curricula. This scenario envisions strong governance and high government investment that foster student engagement and improve parental trust in the PE system.
2. Priority on Health and Mass Sports: Centers on promoting public health, particularly in underserved areas, by expanding access to community-based physical activities and integrating cross-sectoral collaboration between schools, municipalities, and health departments.
3. Limited Support, Limited Impact: Projects a stagnation in PE development due to minimal policy attention and insufficient public investment, leading to widened disparities between urban and rural areas.
4. Focus on Individualism and Privatization of Sports: Foresees a shift toward market-driven models where sports education becomes a commodity, thereby exacerbating inequality and limiting access for low-income populations.
To compare these four scenarios comprehensively, key thematic dimensions were extracted and analyzed. The following table integrates two core scenario comparison tables from the original study—highlighting five thematic keywords and four structural components—demonstrating how each scenario varies across key domains:
Table 1. Integrated Comparison of Future PE Scenarios in Iran
Key Themes / Structural Elements
Scenario 1: Integrated and Smart Education
Scenario 2: Priority on Health and Mass Sports
Scenario 3: Limited Support, Limited Impact
Scenario 4: Focus on Individualism and Privatization
Social Sustainability
High parental trust and student participation
Emphasis on healthy lifestyle and community sports
Moderate participation in limited settings
Restricted to upper-class access
Infrastructure
Smart and integrated development
Targeted development in underserved regions
Lack of development
Privatization and limited availability
Technology Integration
High digitalization and wearable tech usage
Basic digital tools
Low technological presence
Minimal tech use, focused on exclusive services
Public Investment
High government funding
Moderate funding with intersectoral support
Low government support
Negligible public investment
Student Engagement
High participation and interactive learning
Moderate participation through local access
Low engagement
Severely limited engagement for lower-income students
Governance
Effective national policies and coordination
Balanced public involvement
Weak implementation of laws
Absence of supportive regulation
Sport Culture and Awareness
Enhanced school-wide sports culture
Promotion of mass sports and physical literacy
Lack of motivation and strategic direction
Individualistic approaches dominate
Innovation and Pedagogical Tools
Advanced smart tools and digital programs
Strengthening basic technology access
Limited innovations
Private-sector dominated innovation
Human Resources (PE Teachers)
Trained professionals and investment in capacity building
Introductory teacher training programs
Poor quality instruction
Reliance on private instructors
Conclusion
This foresight-driven study emphasizes that the future trajectory of PE in Iranian schools hinges on strategic governance, resource allocation, societal engagement, and digital transformation. The results underscore that proactive investment in integrated, equitable, and technology-driven education systems can substantially uplift the quality and accessibility of PE. For instance, the "Integrated and Smart Education" scenario highlights the benefits of synchronized policies, modernized infrastructure, and digital monitoring tools, which not only improve educational outcomes but also enhance community trust. Conversely, the "Limited Support, Limited Impact" and "Privatization" scenarios caution against a passive or overly market-oriented stance, which could exacerbate socio-economic disparities. These scenarios project a bleak future for public-sector PE, especially for vulnerable and rural populations. Therefore, to mitigate systemic inequities, a collaborative governance model is essential. This study recommends that policymakers develop adaptive, region-sensitive strategies that include scenario planning mechanisms, enabling them to respond dynamically to future uncertainties. Moreover, embedding PE into broader educational transformation agendas will be vital to cultivating a healthier, more active generation of Iranian students.
Article Message
This study contributes to the emerging body of literature on strategic foresight in physical education by proposing four plausible scenarios for the future of school-based PE in Iran. The findings highlight that a desirable future is only achievable through a synergistic combination of effective governance, technological innovation, and active parental engagement. Future research is encouraged to employ quantitative modeling, such as dynamic system simulations and scenario-based forecasting, to validate the long-term impact of these scenarios. Integrating mixed-method approaches and conducting regional case studies will help tailor policies to local needs and promote equitable access to physical education.
Ethical Considerations
All research procedures were conducted in accordance with the ethical standards of academic research, including obtaining informed consent from participants and ensuring the confidentiality and anonymity of their responses.
Authors’ Contributions
· Conceptualization: First Author
· Data Collection: All Authors
· Data Analysis: All Authors
· Manuscript Writing: All Authors
· Review and Editing: All Authors
· Responsible for funding: Not applicable
· Literature Review: All Authors
· Project Manager: Second Author
· Any other Contributions: None declared
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors extend their sincere appreciation to all participants, experts, and stakeholders whose insights and cooperation significantly enriched the quality of this research. Their contributions were essential to achieving the goals of this study.
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